“In God we trust, all others bring data.” – Edward Demings.
Thales of Miletus was an Ancient Greek Philosopher who lived during 600 BC. In the village where Thales lived, there were mystics. Mystics went high in the mountains, communed with “Gods”, and returned with news to the villagers. The villagers would conduct their lives based on what the mystics said. The mystics became powerful and held a lot of power over the villagers.
Thales was frustrated that the villagers relied highly on the mystics. He would tell the villagers, “You don’t have to listen to everything the mystics say. You can rely on observation. If you look carefully, you can find your answers.”
One of the villagers said, “If you are so clever and observant, then why aren’t you the richest man in the village.”
The village was experiencing an extended drought. It was dependent on its olive crop, and in the last two years, there has been little to no rain, hence no olives. So the farmers couldn’t grow the olives or sell them, which led to the village facing a really hard time economically.
One of the main reasons the villagers were losing money was that they had olive presses. These presses were used to press the harvested olives and extract oil, which was then sold to make money. These presses were expensive to build but also costly to operate and maintain. Even if there were no olives to press, the presses had to be maintained, causing the farmers to lose money when they were making none.
So, at the beginning of the olive season, the mystics went up the mountains to divine the will of the Gods. At the particular moment when Thales and the villagers were arguing, the mystics came down and told the villagers, “The Gods are still angry with us. It will be another year of no rain.”
Thales didn’t buy what the mystics said. He rushed into his office. He kept track of the rains for the past 15 years, and by observing the weather, he noticed a pattern. Each time there was little to no rain for two years, the third year would be heavy rain, resulting in a heavy olive crop.
So Thales goes to the villagers, who are upset by the news and mutter, “I don’t know what I am going to do.”
Thales tells him, “We will have a good season.”
The man looks at him and says, “Are you crazy? You heard the mystics.”
Thales says, “I will buy your olive press, and that way if the mystics are right, you won’t lose money on maintaining it.”
The villager agrees, and Thales gathers every penny he has and buys the villagers’ olive presses for cheap.
The season commences, and there is heavy rain and lo and behold there is a bumper crop.
Now, Thales leases off the presses to the farmers at a high price. He makes a fortune. He does this for the next couple of years, and then he realises that according to his data, the rain would go back to a regular pattern, and he sells the presses back to the farmer for a considerable profit.
Thales became very wealthy because he tracked data and used the data to make a bold decision.
What data about your life or work are you tracking?
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